I think it's fair to say that we're starting to see the end of the honeymoon between Google and mainstream media. If you do a search for news articles in the past year, you'll see a steady stream of positive, almost gushing, articles on Google's culture, technology, and happy users. However, now that Google is about to go public we're starting to see more balanced articles, such as the recent article in Fortune titled "Can Google Grow Up?".

I'm glad to see people take a more balanced and skeptical look at Google's success and future prospects. Given what we know about their past track record, you have to admit that if they continue to execute the way they have done in the past, a $20 Billion dollar valuation is not unreasonable. Although Google has great technology, I always thought that the more impressive aspect of their success has been their ability to generate increasing revenue while maintaining high margins using Adwords, which is Google's take on search engine pay for placement that was pioneered by Overture. The other often overlooked part of Google's success is their phenomenal success in generating positive PR and coverage based on word of mouth and good will from their users.

As the article points out, there are some cracks that are starting to appear in the rosy Google success story. The obvious ones are management issues, cultural shifts, and other growing pains that a fast growing company will need to overcome. There is also the threat of competitors such as Yahoo, AOL, and Microsoft who are starting to see Google more of a threat than a partner. However, I think the biggest weakness for Google is the lack of an ongoing relationship with their customers and advertisers.

If you look at the other success stories in the internet space, customer relationships and the sense of community play a significant role in ensuring continued success and customer loyalty. Some companies that come to mind are Amazon, eBay, Yahoo, and even new comers such as NetFlix. On the internet, users have very low switching costs. You're always just a URL away from the next service provider. Also, without an ongoing relationship, it's difficult to provide a customized and optimized experience that will keep you coming back, even when there are other sites that are almost equivalent in features and ease of use.

Google's answer to all of these concerns seems to be that search is still in its infancy and that whoever continues to win the search engine arms race will continue to be successful in attracting advertisers. I don't disagree with this approach since internet search technology is still in its early stages. However, I don't think one company can continue to innovate at the same pace, especially when employees can cash out after an IPO. Unless Google starts going through a technology and cultural shift now, they're in danger of becoming the next AltaVista, except this time it will be Microsoft or Yahoo, rather than two Stanford PhD students who overtake the search engine crown.